According to the United Nations Population Fund’s “State of World Population Report” for 2023, India is expected to surpass China as the world’s most populous nation by mid-year, with a population projection of 1.4286 billion compared to China’s 1.4257 billion.
However, uncertainty surrounding the data from both countries makes it impossible to determine the exact date for this shift. The report also highlights that population growth has been slowing in both China and India. By 2050, eight countries, including India, will account for half the projected growth in global population.
China has held the distinction of being the most populous country since at least 1950, but it recorded a population decline for the first time in six decades last year, with a birth rate that fell to a record low.
India’s working-age population is expected to hit more than 1 billion over the next decade, but experts warn that this could become a liability if policymakers do not create enough jobs. India’s labor force participation rate is among the lowest in Asia.
The UNFPA report also highlights concerns about policies aimed at influencing fertility rates, which can fuel gender-based discrimination.
In India, proposed two-child policies that include financial incentives for sterilization and penalties, such as lost benefits, have been criticized for their harmful impacts. The report emphasizes the importance of reproductive autonomy for healthier lives and societies.
