Is the Ukraine war going to lead to Putin’s demise in Russia?
It’s difficult to say because Vladimir Putin appears to wield ultimate influence over Russia.
Putin has locked up power at all levels, and he holds his country with an iron fist. No one dares to challenge him or offer him even a contradictory opinion.
On the other hand, Putin is more isolated than ever as Russia’s leader.
He is waging a generally unpopular war for which many people in Russia will not be willing to pay a high price forever. This could eventually lead to his downfall.
Some oligarchs may decide to overthrow him, but it will take time before they do. For now, they will accept that they are losing more money every week because of Putin’s war. Until the day when they will not accept it anymore. Then it will be the right moment to try to take action to overthrow him.
The same goes for the Russian people, who have no say in the matter for the time being and who must not express their opposition to this war under penalty of being arrested by the police. The country has sunk a little more into dictatorship. Again, without money, with a Russian economy on its knees, it is possible that the people will end up revolting completely, whatever the consequences.
This war in Ukraine could mark the beginning of the end for Putin.
The problem that remains is who could take over from Putin. If Putin were to be removed from the equation, who would be strong enough to stabilize the country? No one stands out and we could have an even worse period of chaos.